For years, multifamily underwriting has treated population growth as a constant factor. However, that assumption has masked an important distinction: not all demand is created equal. Workforce housing demand and Class A housing demand are increasingly being driven by different forces. This divergence is becoming more visible in current data. First-quarter data point to a market being shaped not only by oversupply, but by segmented demand, including shifts in immigration trends, rising delinquency pressure, and fresh uncertainty around construction costs. Yardi’s March national report said rent growth was just 0.1% year over year, the weakest March reading in its dataset, as “an ongoing supply glut” combined with “reduced immigration and slower job growth” created persistent headwinds.
